1.1. ENERGY BALANCE MODELS OF CLIMATE DYNAMICS 3 0 T T T Rin Rout power T2(t) T3(t) T1(t) Figure 1.2. Incoming vs. outgoing power. Figure 1.3. Difference of the powers of incoming and outgoing radiation. 0 2 · 105 3 · 105 4 · 105 105 time T3(t) T1(t) Figure 1.4. Equilibrium temperatures T1(t) and T3(t) for small fluctuation amplitude b. However for both branches alone — besides being unrealistically low or high — the difference between minimal and maximal temperature can by no means account for the observed shift of about 10 K, and also the relaxation times are much too long. But the most important shortcoming of the model is the lacking possibility of transitions between the two branches. If we allow the fluctuation amplitude b to be large, the picture is still very unrealistic: There are intervals during which one of the two branches T1 or T3

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